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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:1


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17197.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA107-77L0%0.0
11-13East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH61-76L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)SBA115-82L0%0.0
11-20Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCN71-86L0%0.0
11-21Alabama St. (333.0)SWACN97-101W100%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (23.0)B12A103-69L0%0.0
11-28Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA112-66L0%0.0
12-2William & Mary (94.0)CAAH85-108L0%0.0
12-9Georgia Southern (140.0)SBA102-91L0%0.0
12-13Texas A&M (29.0)SECA113-66L0%0.0
12-17Baylor (68.0)B12A118-86L0%0.0
12-19Virginia (1.0)ACCA78-47L0%0.0
12-31Michigan St. (14.0)B10A108-52L0%0.0
1-6Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA71-80W100%0.0
1-8Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA89-88L0%0.0
1-13Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH87-59W100%0.0
1-15Howard (339.0)MEACH91-90W100%0.0
1-20Hampton (237.0)MEACH103-101W100%0.0
1-22Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH104-99W100%0.0
1-27Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA86-106W100%0.0
1-31Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA100-107W100%0.0
2-3South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH111-99W100%0.0
2-10Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH97-94W100%0.0
2-12North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH108-106W100%0.0
2-17Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA85-77L0%0.0
2-19Hampton (237.0)MEACA114-102L0%0.0
2-24Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA121-92L0%0.0
2-26North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH85-75W100%0.0
3-1South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA81-94W100%0.0
3-8North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACN56-58L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.0826.0847.5047.50-1.30-1.30
HamptonMEAC4.044.0451.7251.720.140.14
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.993.9951.7251.720.140.14
Morgan St.MEAC3.963.9635.7135.71-1.13-1.13
Norfolk St.MEAC3.933.9342.8642.86-0.56-0.56
South Carolina St.MEAC3.933.9328.5728.57-1.68-1.68
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
Coppin St.MEAC2.372.3716.1316.13-1.61-1.61
Florida A&MMEAC2.322.3225.0025.00-1.16-1.16
Delaware St.MEAC2.312.316.906.90-1.99-1.99
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.292.2951.7251.720.080.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.292.2917.2417.24-1.50-1.50
HowardMEAC2.292.2926.6726.67-1.07-1.07
CincinnatiAmer1.771.7787.8887.881.341.34
BaylorB121.741.7453.3353.330.120.12
Wichita St.Amer1.741.7477.4277.420.960.96
East Tennessee St.SC1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Jacksonville St.OVC1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Texas TechB121.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
VirginiaACC1.721.7293.7593.751.511.51
William & MaryCAA1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
Georgia SouthernSB1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Alabama St.SWAC1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.691.6980.0080.001.021.02
Michigan St.B101.671.6787.5087.501.251.25
Texas A&MSEC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
West VirginiaB120.290.2970.5970.590.120.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
UCFAmer0.190.1959.3859.380.030.03
WisconsinB100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
George MasonA100.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
TroySB0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
TexasB120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
FurmanSC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
OklahomaB120.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
TempleAmer0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
SMUAmer0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.100.1082.7682.760.070.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00